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Развитие информационной системы численного моделирования распространения пепловых облаков от вулканов Камчатки и Курил

Мальковский С.И., Сорокин А.А., Гирина О.А. (2019) Развитие информационной системы численного моделирования распространения пепловых облаков от вулканов Камчатки и Курил // Вычислительные технологии. Т. 24, № 6. С. 79-89. doi: 10.25743/ICT.2019.24.6.010.

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Official URL: http://www.ict.nsc.ru/jct/t24n6

Abstract

Пепловые облака и шлейфы, возникающие при эксплозивных извержениях вулканов Камчатки и Курил, представляют большую опасность для авиации. Поэтому актуальными задачами являются прогнозирование и анализ их перемещения. Для их решения в составе АИС “Сигнал” создана подсистема моделирования, позволяющая прогнозировать направление, скорость и высоту перемещения пепловых облаков и шлейфов в атмосфере. В то же время для более точной оценки представляемой ими опасности требуется определять не только их качественные, но и количественные характеристики. В статье рассмотрены результаты работы по развитию возможностей АИС “Сигнал”. Дано описание разработанных инструментов, позволяющих прогнозировать концентрацию пепла на эшелонах полетов самолетов, а также мощность и массу пепла, выпавшего на поверхность земли. Приводятся результаты выполненных численных экспериментов, показавших хорошую согласованность полученных результатов моделирования со спутниковыми данными.

Abstract (translation)

Purpose. Ash clouds and plumes arising due to explosive eruptions of the volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands pose a great danger to aviation flights. In this regard, the urgent and important task is to predict and analyze distribution of volcanic ash in the atmosphere . To solve this task, AIS "Signal"was designed. It includes a modelling subsystem using the PUFF model. It allows predicting the direction, speed and height of the propagation of ash clouds and plumes in the atmosphere. At the same time, for more accurate assessment of the danger of ash clouds and plumes, it is necessary to determine not only their qualitative, but also quantitative characteristics, for example, the concentration of ash at the flight levels of aircrafts, the amount of ash deposited on the surface, etc. To solve this problem, research was done to expand the capabilities of the AIS "Signal"by integrating the Eulerian FALL3D model into it. The present article presents the results of this work. Methodology. Implementation of system and user interfaces for automating the processes of collecting and preparing auxiliary data (reference information about volcanoes, meteorological data, etc.), performing numerical calculations in the FALL3D model and visualizing the obtained results both were carried out on the basis of similar interfaces created earlier in AIS “Signal” for the PUFF model. All these features significantly accelerate the process of integration the FALL3D model into the existing AIS modelling subsystem. Implementation of the operating modes of the subsystem and evaluating the efficiency of its functioning were carried out as part of the study of ash clouds and plumes propagation which are formed during explosive events of the Kamchatka volcanoes. Findings. As part of the integration of the FALL3D model into the modelling subsystem, informational interaction of its software components with the services of AIS “Signal” was organized. Algorithms for the formation of collections of meteorological data necessary for the functioning of the model were proposed and implemented. User interfaces have been created that allow specialists to calculate the characteristics of ash clouds with the ability to set detailed initial parameters for an explosive event and model settings. Originality. The integration of the FALL3D model in the AIS “Signal” significantly expands its ability to predict propagation of ash clouds and plumes formed during explosive eruptions of the volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. In addition to the instruments for determining the direction, speed, and height of the spread of volcanic ash, tools have been developed to determine the ash concentration at the flight levels of aircrafts, as well as the thickness and mass of the ash falling on the surface of the Earth. Numerical experiments have showed a good agreement between Originality. The integration of the FALL3D model in the AIS “Signal” significantly expands its ability to predict propagation of ash clouds and plumes formed during explosive eruptions of the volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. In addition to the instruments for determining the direction, speed, and height of the spread of volcanic ash, tools have been developed to determine the ash concentration at the flight levels of aircrafts, as well as the thickness and mass of the ash falling on the surface of the Earth. Numerical experiments have showed a good agreement between the obtained modelling results and the satellite data.the obtained modelling results and the satellite data.
Item Type: Article
Title: Развитие информационной системы численного моделирования распространения пепловых облаков от вулканов Камчатки и Курил
Title (translation): Development of an information system for numerical modelling of the propagation of volcanic ash from Kamchatka and Kuril volcanoes
Language: Russian
Journal or Publication Title: Вычислительные технологии
ISSN Print: 1560-7534
ISSN Online: 2313-691X
Uncontrolled Keywords: вулкан, численное моделирование, спутниковый мониторинг, информационная система, АИС “Сигнал”, PUFF, FALL3D
Subjects: State scientific and technical information rubricator (ГРНТИ) > 20 ИНФОРМАТИКА > 20.23 Информационный поиск > 20.23.17 Информационно-поисковые массивы. Базы данных. Манипулирование данными и файлами
State scientific and technical information rubricator (ГРНТИ) > 28 КИБЕРНЕТИКА > 28.17 Теория моделирования > 28.17.19 Математическое моделирование
State scientific and technical information rubricator (ГРНТИ) > 28 КИБЕРНЕТИКА > 28.17 Теория моделирования > 28.17.23 Моделирование физических процессов
State scientific and technical information rubricator (ГРНТИ) > 38 ГЕОЛОГИЯ > 38.37 Петрография > 38.37.25 Вулканология
Depositing User: к.г.-.м.н. О.А. Гирина
Date Deposited: 20 Nov 2019 08:20
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2019 06:59
URI: http://repo.kscnet.ru/id/eprint/3725

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